NOAA predicts 4-8 hurricanes this season

Adjust Comment Print

Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA, said people shouldn't be fooled into complacency by the word "normal".

The first named storm, Andrea, of the 2019 season formed on May 20 and brought no threat to the US.

There were six named tropical storms in the region in 2018.

Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season predictions, is forecasting 13 named storms, five to become hurricanes and two to hit major status.

Scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predict the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will be about average.

The official start of the 2019 hurricane season begins June 1st and lasts through November 30th.

Meanwhile, Hawaii and the Central Pacific could experience more storms than normal during this year's hurricane season.

Extreme wildfire danger in Slave Lake, Alberta
There have been 430 wildfires in Alberta since March 1, of which 30 are still active and five are classed as out of control. She said about 4,000 people from High Level were affected by the order, and another 750 from Bushe River.

In addition, water temperatures are relatively warm throughout the Atlantic basin, potentially countering the effect of wind shear and encouraging tropical cyclones to form. Of those, between four and eight could become hurricanes, meaning their winds reach speeds of 74 miles per hour (119 km/h) or higher.

"We are maintaining there will ne a weak or slightly increased El Niño event", she said.

They also stress it only takes one storm making landfall to make it a "bad season" and individuals and families should review their emergency preparedness plans and preparations.

This outlook forecasts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. However, the expected warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and a busy West African monsoon season point to above-average activity. "It does not specifically address or predict how many of these tropical cyclones will threaten directly the state of Hawaiʻi", said Brenchley.

The opposite is also true: If El Niño strengthens more than anticipated, it could keep tropical storm activity on the lower end of NOAA's range.

Still, on the subject of changing climate, Robichaud says, "one common thing that coastal communities have to deal with is sea-level rise".

"New satellite data and other upgrades to products and services from NOAA enable a more weather-ready nation by providing the public and decision-makers with the information needed to take action before, during and after a hurricane", said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator.

Comments